All Hands on Deck: Building a Predictive Model of a Department of Defense Agency Program Management Workforce Needs

Situation

The Department of Defense Agency program managers support development and acquisition of a diverse set of over 500 different products that “support the warfighter.” Historically, the agency did not have a strong understanding of what resources would be required to create or procure a new product. As resources became more limited, leadership decided the agency needed a more disciplined and consistent approach to forecasting workload requirements and assigning the workforce.

Approach

Censeo worked with stakeholders in each product sector to understand the differences and similarities across the agency’s product base, and to identify characteristics of weapon systems and products that were key drivers of workload (both by volume and type). Censeo then collected data from a representative sample of weapon systems and products, including data about the product itself and on the workforce and workload required to develop, produce and sustain those products.

With the data in place, Censeo isolated characteristics that where shown to drive resource requirements, determining what combination of statistically significant drivers best explained resource needs. Censeo then designed a working model of resource requirements for products based on the product characteristics. The model was designed for ease of usability and visualization of the outputs so that agency leadership could easily interpret results long after the project had ended.